The history of the modern world is the story of oil and gas.
That era is ending.
Its end overlaps with the rise of ‘green energy’. A global race is on for ‘Decarbonisation’.
The oil giant BP has said consumption following the pandemic might never again reach the heights of 2019. OPEC and the International Energy Agency cut their consumption forecasts.
The US presidential elections are often seen as an ‘Oil vs. Green’ contest. This summer, Joe Biden issued his plan for US carbon neutrality by 2050. It is possible that 2021 will be the year in which the world’s three biggest polluters –US, China and the EU pledge to reach net-zero by 2050 A.D.
From a global rush to control the sources and supply lines of fossil fuels, geopolitics may soon become a stampede in the reverse direction.
The stakes are changing. Solar panels will contribute one-fourth of the total renewable energy production in a net-zero carbon world. They require aluminium, copper, indium and selenium. There is a new wonder mineral – Lithium – the basis of the battery technology that will replace oil as an energy store. Bolivia has the largest lithium deposits in the Andean salt flats.
Given the complex and dynamic nature of the transition, it is difficult to predict precisely how events may unfold. India, and Rajasthan needs to prepare proactively for the new energy age and its economic and geopolitical consequences. There is a crucial need to encourage innovation and investment. Amongst the major players, the United States is close to energy self-sufficiency. It is well positioned in the clean energy race. American companies hold strong positions in new energy technologies and electric vehicles.
China will gain in terms of energy security. It has a leading position in manufacturing, innovation and deployment of renewable energy technologies. In the pre-covid world, it got almost half of the world’s renewable energy investment.
Europe and Japan are very dependent on imported fossil fuel. They also hold strong positions in renewable technologies. In Europe, Germany leads the way with the world’s most patents in renewable energy.
Why is Rajasthan a gainer?
This is because renewables have moved to the centre of the global energy landscape. Technological advances and falling costs have made renewables grow faster than any other energy source. Many renewable technologies are now cost competitive with fossil fuels in the power sector. While the surge in wind, solar and other renewables has taken place mostly in the electricity sector, new technologies are enabling this transformation in other sectors. Electric vehicles and heat pumps are extending the deployment of renewables in transport, industry and buildings. Innovations in energy storage are expanding the potential for renewables.
A global energy transformation is underway. Renewable sources of energy—especially wind and solar—have grown at an unprecedented rate in the last decade. Their deployment in the power sector has already outpaced other energy source, including fossil fuels -oil, coal and natural gas. The transition to renewables is not just a shift from one set of fuels to another. It involves a much deeper transformation of the world’s energy systems that will have major social, economic and political implications which go well beyond the energy sector. India is poised to overtake China as the world’s largest energy growth market by the end of the 2020s decade. India has an ambitious target of 175 GW of renewables by 2022. This represents a massive increase, since India’s total installed capacity in October 2018 was 346 GW. Rajasthan can have a large share of this surge.
The exploitation of hydrocarbon fuels grew global energy use 50x over the last two centuries, shaping the geopolitics of the modern world.There was a geographic concentration in the sourcing. In an energy transformation driven by renewables, a majority of countries can hope to increase their energy independence significantly. Renewables will aid democratization because they make it possible to decentralize the energy supply.
Rajasthan is prime space for solar and wind renewables besides bio gas for micro sufficiency.
The following are primary aspects impacting the transition:
Growth of renewables: Since 2012, renewables have added more new power generation capacity than conventional sources of energy. Solar power added more new capacity in 2017-20 than did coal, gas, and nuclear plants combined. Wind and solar now provide 6% of electricity generation worldwide, up from 0.2% in 2000.
Overall, renewables account for approximately one-fourth of global electricity generation. Countries such as Denmark, Costa Rica, Iceland, Netherlands etc. generate more than half their electricity from variable renewable energy sources.
Electrification: Electricity accounts for 19% of total final energy consumption, but its share is expected to grow as increased electrification of end-use sectors takes place. It has been the fastest growing segment of final energy demand,
Declining cost: The steep decline in costs of renewable energy and energy storage has surprised one and all. They can now beat conventional generation technologies on cost in many of the world’s top markets, even without subsidies.
The cost of lithium-ion batteries, which are used in electric vehicles, has fallen by 80% since 2010. As a result of these cost declines, investments in renewable technologies are up. Rajasthan should march ahead by benefiting from concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies and solar photovoltaics (PV).
Pollution and climate change: Climate change forced governments, businesses, investors and the public to recognize the need for decarbonisation. To achieve the 90% reduction in energy-related emissions targeted in the Paris Agreement, renewables are priority.
Technological innovation: New energy technologies are also being developed for energy storage ,vital for variable renewables such as wind and solar.
A new era has dawned. A global energy transformation is gathering momentum and accelerating. Rajasthan can be the leader in India. Let the sun shine.