Author name: Shubranshu Singh

However evolution has prepared us very differently for attention. Humans can only attend do one thing at a time if it requires focused attention. If we are multi-tasking, Each task that requires attention is attended to singularly and then managed by switching back and forth to other attention seeking tasks. It is no surprise that multitasking is not a commonly encountered capability. Evolutional programed us in this manner because our cognitive apparatus is simply not fit to deal with a blizzard of stimuli. If deluged and overwhelmed with info-processing how would we have become quickly aware of an approaching threat? Equal attention is simply a mortal risk in that context. Our brain was evolved to save our life from predators, not to appreciate advertising. So, has evolution closed all chances for advertising and brand building? Most certainly not! [siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget] If at all, it has made us ready for something wonderfully more complex and useful – it’s called “low involvement processing “and it happens unconsciously. The powerful engines of our cerebral processing are engaged subconsciously. These exceptions help us process 24/7 and not have to react to every sound we hear or every visual that we see. From a primitive instinctual perspective,shallow connection heuristics matter a lot more. Feelings are reliable shortcuts for thinking. If your food smells unusual you don’t put it in your mouth! You don’t evaluate the foul-smelling to decode edibility. You don’t process to compare that smell to other foul smells encountered earlier. Hence low conscious processing does not mean blindness to tone ,feel or other sensory perception. To the contrary, it can heighten the sensory appreciation. When consumers do shallow or subconscious processing they are in fact relying on a deeper, richer , complex , more densely associative memory structure than when they’re actively processing rational messages. A significant research on the relationship of attention, learning , processing and memory was done by Fergus Craik & Robert Lockhart “ levels of processing: retrospective commentary on the framework for memory research “. The conclusion of this research was that shallow processing also leads to categorisation of different types of information based on different levels of processing attention and that eventually it has a bearing on short-term and long-term memory. It also has a deeper connection to phonetic, semantic and structural sensibility – sound,text and look respectively. The outcome of subsequent research in this direction now points to evidence that shallow, subconscious, inattentive processing can lead to long-lasting cognitive associations that cause learning. Further, it is clear that such sub conscious processes happen quickly and automatically.  It doesn’t choke your conscious attention or processing bandwidth. Since our world is saturated with brands and brand imagery every encounter is in connected in a web of associations and associative markers. What truly exists in the subconscious mind is not known but it exists for sure because we know that it triggers thoughts, feelings and actions. Another way to think of this phenomenon on is to study the submersion, receding and fogging out of active memory. We can each name a favourite brand say,X and we can describe the role it plays in our lives. We can  personify the brand and detail our emotional responses with reference to this brand .  But , almost never can we play back the chronology of our association. We will not be able to detail when we first learned of the brand and what or who influenced our choice. We wont recall all the advertising we have seen. We can’t explain our learning about the brand has strengthened our preference.  All these are half baked, unclear, vague and unverifiable. So even our actively learned, attentively imbibed learning retreats into a vast subconscious. The longer lasting, better preserved associations are actually in the subconscious mind. Our gut is not dictated to by our rational brain. In fact more often, our gut can override and suppress the rational brain. Finally, brand building is like putting out content in a newspaper. Each column inch is packed with text and imagery competing for attention with every other column inch. So whatever you choose – opinion, sports, business, arts, politics; it is because of self-selection. You will note is for those parts which don’t interest as we are blind we have ‘attentional blindness’. The more enraptured we are paying attention to one thing, the more we blank out on everything else.  Daniel Simons and Chritopher Chabris became world famous because of their “gorilla experiment “. It proved that people can be so focused on tasks as to be blind to almost everything such as even a man in a Gorilla suit working amidst them  (“Gorillas in our midst: sustained inattentional blindness for dynamic events”) To conclude – if you are avoiding the lure of top-rated, crazily expensive, attentive audience advertising plan bought off a media rate card you may actually be doing a smart thing after all. But ensure that by other means you are diffused and present in the consumer ecosystem. If you are not like a mist, humidity, fragrance , the subconscious mind may or may not fully register your presence. Remember a sizeable part of success is because of the subconscious inattentive audience. Did you pay attention? http://www.businessworld.in/article/The-Fragility-Of-Attention/10-08-2019-174638/

The acclaimed tamper-proof ledger put wheels on blockchain taking it everywhere from healthcare to insurance and AI is the basis for cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and now Libra. It’s sensible to consider the risks first. Its open and versatile nature could perhaps be its undoing. Quantum computing, could break blockchain defenses. That risk is palpable and the consequences are dire. Quantum computers can store more information using less energy than traditional computers, which means they can rapidly perform complex calculations. [siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget] Unlike normal computers, quantum machines can go down multiple paths simultaneously in their problem-solving. As a result, it is tens of thousands to millions of times faster than current computers and more power means tasks such as breaking encryption becomes easier, potentially exposing critical data and sensitive information. As early as 2016 attempts by a team from MIT and the University of Innsbruck led to a quantum computer that they claim, if successfully scaled up, could break RSA encryption, a widely used algorithm. This is the standard encryption, securing everything from text messages to e-commerce. Given this news, one can only imagine the panic happening in commercial and intelligence establishments. The blockchain is particularly vulnerable because it has a single point of failure. Once breached, all the blocks are freely available for invasive appropriation from criminal mafias to undercover agencies to gather. Today they are encrypted, hence secure. Once quantum computing gets cheap enough, there could be huge leaks of blockchain data that is potentially being secured into a captive reservoir now. In 2018, Google unveiled Bristlecone, a chip with 72 qubits that the company believes could soon reach “quantum supremacy”, bringing mass-produced quantum computers to market. The biggest locks on our doors are as safe as the key that gently turns and opens it. Now let’s look at the hype. Who is to assess the magnitude of the change that is upon us? Is blockchain an imminent reality that is commercially viable now? Products and services are being “reinvented” with AI at their core. There is huge investor interest in AI data plus intelligence means new solutions to problems. But who is judging if the AI being sold as nirvana is not some ready-made algorithm slapped on existing data? AI needs to deliver in a commercially scaled manner. The question to ask the current AI hype builders is whether AI is ready for real-world robustness? The direction is set and the momentum is irreversible but the real magic will happen when early failure makes the smart followers scale to commercial giant status. The future is an era of AI no matter what the risks. That’s a certainty. We are living in an age where mass is replaced by personalised.  Everyone has a data track and the distinction between local and global is disappearing. Everyone is enabled by technology to choose between multiple market-based alternatives. For example, minting money used to be always a sovereign right. But now we see an explosion of alternative cryptocurrencies. Investors like Andreessen Horowitz, Bain Capital, and Peter Thiel have invested over $300 million into stable coins, projects that are seeking to print dollars and euros in blockchain to compete with central banks. This is a direct and potent challenge to control of monetary policy by central banks. Fact is that today most dollars and other global reserve currencies exist only as digital records, not as physical paper notes. Add to the tech-enabled fact that anyone can create blockchain-based cryptocurrencies, and we could create a system that issues a cryptocurrency which always has the same value as a dollar. Then there will be no distinction between a federal reserve dollar and a crypto-dollar. Today a dollar or euro is a unit and denomination of monetary value, not brands Projects such as Maker and Basis are attempts to achieve precisely this – creating crypto-currencies that can be accepted as if they were “real dollars” and are exchangeable for Fed-dollars on a one-to-one basis. There was a time when business was wary of big government. It is the other way around now. Recently, Facebook announced that it would launch its own digital coin next year, a potentially revolutionary step that will allow 2.4 billion users to make payments over its network. This promises to crack open one of the most over-regulated industries in the world. Doing so with its own private global currency, Facebook will allow users to convert from dollars, pounds, and other international currencies into this cryptocurrency called Libra and vice versa. The coins can be used for all in nature of commerce on the Internet in physical locations and transferring money without needing a bank account. This cryptocurrency, being developed in Switzerland is backed by networks such as Visa, MasterCard, and PayPal. Others in the ecosystem include Uber, Spotify, eBay, Vodafone amongst a total of 28 companies that are reported to have signed up. The cryptocurrency was born with Bitcoin a decade ago and several other minor cryptocurrencies followed but their summative impact seems fairly marginal. Estimates of the numbers using Bitcoin do not exceed 20–25 million people. Facebook, however, is on a completely different scale. Besides 2.3 billion users, Whatsapp has another 1.5 billion. This user base along with a market value of $500 billion gives Facebook the muscle mass needed. If Libra becomes the currency used by everyday people it will be an irreversible phenomenon. Despite all its other troubles, the market is anticipating this huge breakthrough and the Facebook share price has climbed throughout this year. It will immediately impact traditional banking. Across the world, regular banks are grappling with ineffective scale, poor legacy technology, weak unemotional branding, and ‘low-tech – high touch’ structures. Their liquidity comes in via the current and savings accounts. Once that is gone, traditional banking will be gone too. It will also massively erode the power of governments, central banks, and monetary sovereignty. Once a currency has 2–3 billion users across the world no single government or currency can dislodge it. In other words,

A magic that defies definition or the eternal pursuit of being better? No one needs luxury. Yet everyone wants it. It represents the most valued of mankind’s possessions. Luxury takes wallets to dreams. ‘Getting luxury’ is a mindset. It is an acquired taste. For the same reasons why one can learn to tell from amongst varieties of cheese. But since the world is changing at an unprecedented pace and extent, so must luxury. Today the definitive icon is a self-made super achiever. Her ascendancy has little to do with privilege or context but with value creation and qualifications. For such a super-achiever seeking experience are equally, if not more important than possessions. Brands also are seeking to be their own medium. With a global rise of affluence, there is a recognition that many more people can ‘do expensive’. Wallets can buy their way to any epic restaurant but one can walk into one’s club without a wallet altogether. This elevated state of being whilst being wedded to earthly delights is the essence of luxury. [siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget] For the ‘super-elites’, luxury has been a way of life from the advent of civilisation. In the modern sense, it got crystallised as a class characteristic in the post-renaissance period in Europe. In 1899, Thorstein Veblen used the description ‘conspicuous consumption’ in his profound work ‘The theory of the Leisure Class’. Sociologists viewed the acquisition of luxury objects and its associated lifestyle as a socio-cultural phenomenon driven by hedonism or acquisition of social esteem. In Vance Packard’s ‘The hidden persuaders’ one can see a cumulative academic judgment that a luxury-seeking lifestyle is a shallow, materialistic drivenness. This hankering remains forever ungratified. But most authorities on aesthetics, culture, art and social esteem will rubbish such a biased judgment. For them, luxury is beyond a badge or marker of superior quality. Luxury is elevated to an emotional essence, a cultural medium and – at its very highest – a self-perpetuating myth, even a philosophy. Luxury can be seen in two ways at any time. An outer symbolism vs inner-directed pursuit. A statement of self as against an unconscious adherence to social class codes. A possession to play up one’s entitlement or the need to not be overt because everyone gets it. No matter why you seek luxury be it quality, prestige, pleasure or status, it is ultimately to elevate, enrich and luxuriate oneself. Buying luxury is being luxury, irrespective of the context and no matter what your depth of connection you are then part of an enigma, an aura, and a self-perpetuating mystique. Every Yacht is an iceberg. The badging and the possession is only the manifestation of a deeper set of urges. These associations that act below the threshold are much more significant. For me as a marketer, there is another perspective as well. I see the ‘longing’ as a need for ‘belonging’. A tribe of super achievers who are united with others who are equally unique. This inaccessibility is the biggest brand strength. Not everyone can get in but everyone ‘wants in’. The life behind velvet cordons is the boundary line. All desire it, only the very few deserve it. Inside the cordon is a living benchmark of aspirational elitism. They are assumed to be folks who are cultural and creative sophisticates. A few who are inside the ring get evolved enough to be in the clique of tastemakers, trendsetters and those who define taste. I will conclude by saying emotion and evocation are more important to understand than any physical, factual or substantial reasons. After all haute cuisine, exhibition art and performing arts are all spaces for enjoyment and delighting only the senses. The image, aura, provocation, pride, inscrutability is felt without much being said. In a cruel irony, those who hunger most for luxury never get it. Those who climb up to get into the circle choose luxury brands to give their growth some gravitas. New money gets infected with the desire much before any claims to connoisseurship. It’s a marker to signal that they too are privileged and exceptional. Those who belong, know it. The vast majority are made to admire from far away. Those are the rules of the luxury game. Not all wallets buy dreams. http://www.businessworld.in/article/Luxury-Wallets-To-Dreams/27-07-2019-173756/

In less than 40 years, China has become the world’s largest industrial producer and trading power. It holds the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. Whether anyone appreciates it or not, China is contributing more than any other country to global growth. It is a global power with all the bells and whistles required. Beijing now splurges $10 billion a year on overseas propaganda and at $28 Bn, China’s aid budget is the largest in the world. There are now Confucius Institutes covering every continent. Xinhua, its state news agency, has 180 bureaus, making it the world’s 4th largest behind the Associated Press, Reuters and Agency France-Presse. Its trillion dollar belt and road initiative is more than 10 times larger than America’s postwar Marshal plan in present dollar valuation. It has the world’s largest co-existent public and private sector. [siteorigin_widget class=”SiteOrigin_Widget_Image_Widget”][/siteorigin_widget] The US accuses China of practicing “state capitalism” and supporting state owned enterprises at the expense of the free market. But honestly, even in the US the government has never ceased to intervene. The US government rightly fostered the growth of the internet, bio-technology and shale gas. Likewise, during the grave financial crisis of 2008, the US rescued banks and provided fiscal stimulus. State owned enterprises are present across the developed world including in the US especially in capital intensive sectors viz infrastructure, public services and scientific and technological research. Chinese public sector mega-corps are run by elite cadres. Many are listed joint-stock companies China has a ‘socialist- market’ economy. The Government overrides the market and has a decisive role in resource allocation. China’s industrial and credit policies dictate results even if its macro-regulation follows WTO  rules. We have evidence about China’s economic miracle in the private sector. It contributes more than 50 percent of China’s tax revenue,  60 percent of gross domestic product, 70 percent of technological innovation and 90 percent of new jobs and businesses. Chinese private businesses and companies with foreign investors accounted for 83.7 per cent of imports and exports in 2017, up from 57.5 per cent in 2001. This is the context for the simmering that has now come to a boil in US – China relationship. Of course, there was cordiality on display when Donald Trump met President Xi Jinping in Osaka at the G20. But no one is under any illusion that one of the biggest trade wars that the world has seen in recent years is on. The US has imposed tariffs on $250 billion of imports from China. Beijing has retaliated in like measure. The tariff fight is only an overt sign of a much larger struggle – The struggle for world domination. The struggle itself, forget the outcome, will change the world forever. Trump has enough critics. But even critics acknowledge his administration has put US policy into gear and blown the whistle on China. It seems to be in the “national interest”. What that means in the present world of transnational cross holdings, global capital flows and distributed worldwide innovation merits an article on its own. China has risen inexorably to become the most powerful strategic rival to the US but under successive Republican and Democratic presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, China was given a wide berth and  accommodation. The US had a $375 billion trade deficit in 2017 vis a vis China. It is unsustainable. Trade flows aside, the US needs to challenge China’s rise comprehensively including but not limited to economic muscle, foreign aid, soft power and diplomacy. The assumption that bringing China into the WTO and other such global regimes makes it conformist with international norms in trade and business was simply invalid. The US has now upped its attack to Beijing’s human rights record, its Belt and Road Initiative and military presence in South China Sea. This could be a long haul. The US- USSR attrition ran its course from 1945 -1991. But China is already an established and flourishing economic power as they start off China is also one of America’s biggest creditors. Therefore, the US strategy is multi-pronged. First, restrain and challenge China’s technological growth. Stop intellectual property or technology transfer. This is why Huawei was deemed to be a ‘national emergency’ for the US. China has made huge advances in certain areas – artificial intelligence, material science, avionics and military technologies. Secondly, to reduce US economic dependence on China. Transfer investments and manufacturing elsewhere into Asia. Growing partnerships with key allies such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines is to act as a counterweight. Finally, critical to leverage India. We, in India , have a good position to favourably exploit this attrition too. No other Asian power has the size, growth, population, domestic market, physical expanse, intellectual and material resources and soft power that India does. America –India is a natural partnership. Through mutual economic pursuits and collaboration a glorious tomorrow is within sight. http://www.businessworld.in/article/India-US-The-Democracies-That-Are-Natural-Partners/09-07-2019-173005/