Ever since it came into existence as a free country, India has not been challenged like in the present face off with China. This is because in our past conflicts – the two wars we fought with Pakistan and the one with China in 1962 -India did not face an opponent that could become an existential crisis. A nuclear armed India now takes on a China that is the undisputed number 2 power in the world.
Or is it ?
India must see the world as it exists for us -by role and relevance- and decide who matters ?
First is the EU and USA representing a liberal order where security is guaranteed by military might but even more so by economic interdependence and the force of law. It is our largest economic partner bloc.
Second comes the Islamic world consisting also of the Wahhabi fundamentalist forces which feed terrorism. Our dependence on Arab and Iranian oil makes it critical.
Russia with its deep state run power apparatus is an important military supplier and partner.
And then there is China!
China is a vast country with economic dynamism, focused leadership and military might. It also sees India as an adversary.
China, unlike the other world powers, has not promoted a worldview. While there is endless comment on its economic, political and military affairs but no one has seen it as a powerhouse of “ideas”.
China – love or hate it – is an inexhaustible force whose economy rose fast enough for it to become the world’s largest economy in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms. It dominates the world supply chains and has managed to drag 400 million people from rural poverty to prosperity in less than 40 years. The ‘Made in China’ label was acquiring clout, till the Covid crisis began.
The scale, speed and impact of material progress is prompting a deeper question. Will China rise to rule the world as a hegemon? Will India inevitably face ruinous conflict with China?
As a professional marketer, content maker, business manager ,socio-economic observer and writer my assessment is that China lacks the soft power to dominate the world. It is acting aggressively and is being acquisitive but it does not inspire deep adoration. The world is wary of China. We remain uninspired by its intellectual output. Can we name even five contemporary Chinese writers, thinkers and artists ? China has got richer but has it got enriched holistically?
China has not accommodated itself to the rules of a globalised world with democracy, privatisation and collaboration at its core.
China’s government is a mega state business enterprise. This is what allows China to have the confidence to be a military aggressor and a political despot. State economics is their engine.
On 15th April 1989, a memorial march for the former communist party Secretary General HuYaobang turned into a mass protest for political reform, workers rights and an end to official corruption. It dominated the heart of Beijing for six weeks but was abruptly crushed by soldiers and tanks on 4thJune 1989. The crackdown was a human tragedy and it showed us that China is ‘all economics no politics’.
Deng Xiaoping – China’s supreme leader after Mao Tse Tung had made his directive clear – “Tao guang Yang Hui” literally meaning “hide brightness, nourish obscurity”. The state media has officially translated this as “be patient and build capability“.
Now China has decided that its time has arrived. However it still does not have “Soft power”. The Chinese state’s establishment rues its lack of exportable cultural dominance that they call “RuanQuan Li”
This is where- I believe- currently India has a decisive edge over China. India is an intellectual power with credits to several large impact ideas and new cultural content that appeals to a larger world. We have a freedom of expression that leads to widespread dissemination.
In my opinion China’s path to superpower status is not smooth. Beijing is formula of state capitalism, open market but a closed political system will not last the course of its attrition with powerful liberal democracies.
Soft power will beat hard power eventually.